C. African Republic neighbors to send help






BANGUI, Central African Republic (AP) — Central African Republic’s neighbors agreed on Friday to dispatch a contingent of soldiers to intervene in the troubled country, where a coalition of rebel groups is seeking to overthrow the president of nearly a decade.


Representatives from the 10-nation Economic Community of Central African States meeting in Gabon, though, did not specify how many troops they could contribute nor did they outline how quickly the military assistance would arrive.






President Francois Bozize had pleaded for international help Thursday as fears grew that the rebels would attack the capital of 600,000 next. Former colonial power France already has said that its forces in the country are there to protect French interests and not Bozize’s government.


“We are now thinking about the arrangements to make so that this mission can be deployed as quickly as possible, said Gabon’s Foreign Affairs Minister Emmanuel Issoze-Ngondet.


The announcement came as military officials in Central African Republic reported renewed fighting in the third largest city of Bambari, which fell under rebel control five days ago.


The military said it had taken country of the town, located about 385 kilometers (240 miles) from the capital, a claim that could not be immediately corroborated.


The ongoing instability prompted the United States to evacuate about 40 people, including the U.S. ambassador, on an U.S. Air Force plane bound for Kenya, said U.S. officials who insisted on anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the operation.


The United States has special forces troops in the country who are assisting in the hunt for Joseph Kony, the fugitive rebel leader of another rebel group known as the Lord’s Resistance Army. The U.S. special forces remain in the country, the U.S. military’s Africa Command said from its headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany.


The evacuation of the U.S. diplomats came in the wake of criticism of how the U.S. handled diplomatic security before and during the attack on its consulate in Benghazi, Libya, on Sept. 11. The ambassador and three other Americans were killed in that attack.


French diplomats are staying despite a violent demonstration outside its embassy earlier this week. Dozens of protesters, angry about a lack of help against rebel forces, threw rocks at the French Embassy in Bangui and stole a French flag. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius spoke via phone with Bozize, asking him to take responsibility for the safety of French nationals and diplomatic missions in Central African Republic.


Bozize on Thursday urgently called on former colonial ruler France and other foreign powers to help his government fend off rebels who are quickly seizing territory and approaching the capital. But French President Francois Hollande said France wants to protect its interests in Central African Republic and not Bozize’s government.


This landlocked nation of some 4.4 million people has suffered decades of army revolts, coups and rebellions since gaining independence in 1960 and remains one of the poorest countries in the world. The current president himself came to power nearly a decade ago in the wake of a rebellion in this resource-rich yet deeply poor country.


Speaking to crowds in Bangui, a city of some 600,000, Bozize pleaded with foreign powers to do what they could. He pointed in particular to France. About 200 French soldiers are already in the country, providing technical support and helping to train the local army, according to the French defense ministry.


“France has the means to stop (the rebels) but unfortunately they have done nothing for us until now,” Bozize said.


Bozize’s government earlier reached out to longtime ally Chad, which pledged to send 2,000 troops to bolster Central African Republic’s own forces.


The rebels behind the most recent instability signed a 2007 peace accord allowing them to join the regular army, but insurgent leaders say the deal wasn’t fully implemented. The rebel forces have seized at least 10 towns across the sparsely populated north of the country, and residents in the capital now fear the insurgents could attack at any time, despite assurances by rebel leaders that they are willing to engage in dialogue instead of attacking Bangui.


The rebels have claimed that their actions are justified in light of the “thirst for justice, for peace, for security and for economic development of the people of Central African Republic.”


Despite Central African Republic’s wealth of gold, diamonds, timber and uranium, the government remains perpetually cash-strapped.


The rebels also are demanding that the government make payments to ex-combatants, suggesting that their motives may also be for personal financial gain.


Paris is encouraging peace talks between the government and the rebels, with the French Foreign Ministry noting in a statement that negotiations are due to “begin shortly in Libreville (Gabon).” But it was not immediately clear if any dates have been set for those talks.


The U.N.’s most powerful body condemned the recent violence and expressed concern about the developments.


“The members of the Security Council reiterate their demand that the armed groups immediately cease hostilities, withdraw from captured cities and cease any further advance towards the city of Bangui,” the statement said.


___


Goma reported from Libreville, Gabon. Associated Press writers Krista Larson in Dakar, Senegal; and Jason Straziuso in Nairobi, Kenya contributed to this report.


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iPad mini met with ‘insatiable’ demand in China







Despite a “soft” launch with few lines and seemingly abundant availability, China is going crazy for the iPad mini according Topeka Capital Markets analyst Brian White. His checks in China and Hong Kong reveal consumers are snapping up iPad minis at rapid rates, causing short supply, even with Apple (AAPL) opening two new retail stores in Hong Kong and three in China. White wrote in a research note on Friday that the iPad mini was sold-out at virtually all Apple Stores in both regions this week and is already more popular than the fourth-generation iPad thanks to the tablet’s smaller size and lower price.


[More from BGR: The Boy Genius Report: The Wii U is Nintendo’s last console]






[More from BGR: Samsung could face $ 15 billion fine for trying to ban iPhone, other Apple devices]


Additionally, White’s research shows iPhone 5 supply has improved to the point where anyone can walk into an Apple Store and buy one on the spot.


“After the Galaxy S III and Galaxy Note I/II became more popular than the iPhone 4S in recent months, our discussions now indicate that the iPhone 5 has recently become the most popular high-end smartphone at the resellers that we spoke with,” White in his note.


This article was originally published by BGR


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Novel takes on the tumult of bipolar disorder






NEW YORK (Reuters) – “Too Bright to Hear Too Loud to See” is a work of fiction, but author Juliann Garey said the protagonist’s struggles with bipolar disorder are based on her own reality.


The debut novel from journalist and screenwriter Garey, which was published this week, centers on Hollywood executive Greyson Todd‘s struggle to navigate life with bipolar disorder.






The story is told as a collection of memories that include Greyson‘s childhood with his mentally ill father, the discord that his symptoms cause in his marriage and professional life, and his travels around the world that precede his stay in a New York psychiatric hospital.


Garey herself is bipolar and the illness runs in her family.


“There are components that are conceived from my life, but it’s certainly not autobiographical,” she said in an interview. “It’s definitely fiction in terms of the plot. In terms of the psychic rollercoaster that he (Greyson) goes through in the book, that is actually very much from my own life.”


Garey said the steep crests and drops of Greyson’s moods closely paralleled her own. Beginning at age 39, she experienced a seven-year, treatment-resistant bipolar episode during which she wrote the book.


“When Greyson was having a manic episode, it was because I was having a manic episode and I wrote it during that period,” she said. “During his very depressed periods, I was probably very depressed and I wrote it at that time, so I was feeling what he was feeling.”


Garey’s book coincides with the recent release of a critically acclaimed film, “Silver Linings Playbook,” which centers on a character who is bipolar. It also comes as a rash of mass shootings has prompted questions about the accessibility of mental healthcare in the United States.


Though Garey said there is still a “huge stigma” attached to mental illnesses like bipolar disorder, she considers open discussion a step in the right direction.


“People have to know that it’s a brain disorder, a matter of circuitry,” she said. “It’s an illness like diabetes or multiple sclerosis or any other medical illness, and it needs to be treated in the same way.”


Greyson’s difficulties with his illness might make for a compelling novel, but Garey believes that a few key changes could prevent many mentally ill people from similar suffering. She advocates integrating mental healthcare more closely with existing care.


“Kids get screened when they go to the pediatrician for their sight, their hearing, and they should get screened for mental health as well. It should be part of a regular annual physical,” she said.


She praised President Barack Obama for increasing research funding to the National Institute of Mental Health, and for backing mental healthcare parity. She also criticized politicians for their silence on mental health issues, particularly during the 2012 presidential election.


“There are 11 million Americans with a serious mental illness who were voting in that election, and mental illness never came up once during the campaign,” she said of the 2012 presidential election. “We have a long way to go.”


(Editing by Patricia Reaney and Doina Chiacu)


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Stahl arrested for investigation of lewd conduct






LOS ANGELES (AP) — Los Angeles police say actor Nick Stahl has been arrested for investigation of lewd conduct.


The 33-year-old “Terminator 3″ star was arrested about 8 p.m. Thursday on Hollywood Boulevard. He was booked on a misdemeanor count of lewd conduct and released from custody.






The Los Angeles Times reports (http://lat.ms/YU6uBO) that Stahl was arrested at an adult movie shop during a routine undercover police operation.


In May, Stahl had been reported missing by his wife, but he later turned up.


Stahl was a child star who performed in the 1993 film “The Man Without a Face.” He also has appeared in the 2003-2005 HBO series “Carnivale’” and starred in “Mirrors 2″ in 2010. An email seeking comment from his publicist was not immediately returned Friday.


___


Information from: Los Angeles Times, http://www.latimes.com


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Obama ‘optimistic’ on cliff deal









US President Barack Obama: “An agreement is being discussed as we speak”



US President Barack Obama says he is “modestly optimistic” that a deal to avoid the “fiscal cliff” is possible, after a last-ditch White House meeting.


Mr Obama said Senate leaders were working to craft a bill that could win approval in both chambers of Congress.


But if a compromise was not reached, the president said he would ask for a quick vote on preventing tax rises.


Congress has only four days to reach an agreement before across-the-board tax rises and spending cuts take effect.


Analysts say sliding over the so-called “cliff” could tip the US into recession and set back the global economic recovery.


If Senate majority leader Harry Reid and minority leader Mitch McConnell do not work out a deal, Mr Obama is seeking a vote to prevent tax rises on incomes up to $ 250,000 (£150,000) and ensure unemployment insurance is continued.


He described that as the “bare minimum” Congress should get done before 1 January.


“The hour for immediate action is here, it is now,” Mr Obama said.


‘Imperfect’ deal


Earlier on Friday, Mr Obama met Mr Reid, Mr McConnell, House Speaker John Boehner and House minority leader Nancy Pelosi at the White House for just over an hour.


Continue reading the main story

Start Quote



“The American people are watching what we do here – obviously their patience is already thin”



End Quote Barack Obama


Mr McConnell and Mr Reid said they were entering talks shortly after the meeting, and gave relatively upbeat assessments on their task.


Mr McConnell said he was “hopeful and optimistic” that he could present a comprise to his caucus by Sunday, just over 24 hours before the deadline.


His Democratic counterpart said he would “do everything I can” to make the deal happened.


But Mr Reid cautioned that “whatever we come up with is going to be imperfect”.


The renewed effort towards a Senate deal that could pass both chambers comes after much of the focus in negotiations rested on House Speaker John Boehner.


An alternative plan proposed by Mr Boehner – which would have seen taxes rise only on those earning over $ 1m – failed in the House of Representatives late last week.


Continue reading the main story

What is the fiscal cliff?


  • On 1 January 2013, tax increases and huge spending cuts are due to come into force – the so-called fiscal cliff

  • Deadline was put in place in 2011 to force president and Congress to agree ways to save money over the next 10 years

  • Fear is that raising taxes while massively cutting spending will have huge impact on households and businesses

  • Experts believe it could push the US into recession, and have a global impact on growth


Mr Boehner has called the lower chamber into session on Sunday. A staff member in the house speaker’s office told Reuters that the House would consider Senate legislation.


“The Speaker told the president that if the Senate amends the House-passed legislation and sends back a plan, the House will consider it – either by accepting or amending,” the unnamed aide said.


Mr Obama’s plans to increase taxes on the wealthiest Americans have remained a point of division between the two parties since he won re-election in November.


Many Republicans oppose new taxes as a matter of principle, and are demanding cuts to what they see as deficit-inflating public spending, putting at risk healthcare and welfare benefit schemes popular with Democrats.


During the news conference on Friday, Mr Obama said any last minute action on tax rises would form the groundwork for further negotiations in the new year.


“The American people are watching what we do here,” he said. “Obviously their patience is already thin.”


Cuts and benefits


The term fiscal cliff refers to the combination of almost $ 600bn (£370bn) of tax rises and spending cuts due to come into force on 1 January if Congress does not pass new legislation.


Sweeping tax cuts passed during the presidency of George W Bush will expire, eventually affecting people of all income levels, and many businesses.


Other tax cuts and benefits set to expire include:


• A 2010 payroll tax cut, the expiration of which would prompt immediate wage-packet cuts


• Benefits for the long-term unemployed


• Compensation for doctors treating patients on federal healthcare programmes


• Inheritance taxes are also likely to be affected if no deal is reached.


In addition, spending cuts mandated by a law passed to break a previous fiscal impasse in Congress will come into force, affecting both military and domestic budgets.


The cuts are expected to affect federal government departments and the defence sector, as well as hitting unemployment insurance and veterans’ support.


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C. African Republic president seeks foreign help






BANGUI, Central African Republic (AP) — The president of Central African Republic on Thursday urgently called on France and other foreign powers to help his government fend off rebels who are quickly seizing territory and approaching the capital, but French officials declined to offer any military assistance.


The developments suggest Central African Republic could be on the brink of another violent change in government, something not new in the history of this resource-rich, yet deeply impoverished country. The current president, Francois Bozize, himself came to power nearly a decade ago in the wake of a rebellion.






Speaking to crowds in Bangui, a city of some 600,000, Bozize pleaded with foreign powers to do what they could. He pointed in particular to France, Central African Republic’s former colonial ruler.


About 200 French soldiers are already in the country, providing technical support and helping to train the local army, according to the French defense ministry.


“France has the means to stop (the rebels) but unfortunately they have done nothing for us until now,” Bozize said.


French President Francois Hollande said Thursday that France wants to protect its interests in Central African Republic and not Bozize’s government. The comments came a day after dozens of protesters, angry about a lack of help against rebel forces, threw rocks at the French Embassy in Bangui and stole a French flag.


Paris is encouraging peace talks between the government and the rebels, with the French Foreign Ministry noting in a statement that negotiations are due to “begin shortly in Libreville (Gabon).” But it was not immediately clear what, if any, dates have been set for those talks.


French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, meanwhile, spoke via phone with Bozize, asking the president to take responsibility for the safety of French nationals and diplomatic missions in Central African Republic.


U.S. officials said Thursday the State Department would close its embassy in the country and ordered its diplomatic team to leave. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were unauthorized to discuss the evacuation publicly.


The United Nations Security Council issued a press statement late Thursday reiterating its concern about the situation in the country and condemned the attacks.


“The members of the Security Council reiterate their demand that the armed groups immediately cease hostilities, withdraw from captured cities and cease any further advance towards the city of Bangui,” the statement reads.


Bozize’s government earlier reached out to longtime ally Chad, which pledged to send 2,000 troops to bolster Central African Republic’s own forces. But it was unclear if the Chadian troops had all arrived, and even then, it is far from certain if the combined government forces could withstand rebel attacks.


At least four different rebel groups are involved, though their overall numbers could not immediately be confirmed.


Central African Republic, a landlocked nation of some 4.4 million people, is roughly the size of France. It has suffered decades of army revolts, coups and rebellions since gaining independence in 1960 and remains one of the poorest countries in the world.


The rebels behind the most recent instability signed a 2007 peace accord allowing them to join the regular army, but insurgent leaders say the deal wasn’t fully implemented.


Already, the rebel forces have seized at least 10 towns across the sparsely populated north of the country, and residents in the capital now fear the insurgents could attack at any time, despite assurances by rebel leaders that they are willing to engage in dialogue instead of attacking Bangui.


The rebels have claimed that their actions are justified in light of the “thirst for justice, for peace, for security and for economic development of the people of Central African Republic.”


Despite Central African Republic’s wealth of gold, diamonds, timber and uranium, the government remains perpetually cash-strapped. Filip Hilgert, a researcher with Belgium-based International Peace Information Service, said rebel groups are unhappy because they feel the government doesn’t invest in their areas.


“The main thing they say is that the north of the country, and especially in their case the northeast, has always been neglected by the central government in all ways,” he said.


But the rebels also are demanding that the government make payments to ex-combatants, suggesting that their motives may also be for personal financial gain.


Bozize, a former military commander, came to power in a 2003 rebel war that ousted his predecessor, Ange-Felix Patasse. In his address Thursday, Bozize said he remained open to dialogue with the rebels, but he also accused them and their allies of financial greed.


Those allies, he implied, are outside Central African Republic.


“For me, there are individuals who are being manipulated by an outside hand, dreaming of exploiting the rich Central African Republic soil,” he said. “They want only to stop us from benefiting from our oil, our diamonds, our uranium and our gold.”


___


Larson reported from Dakar, Senegal. Associated Press writer Sarah DiLorenzo in Paris contributed to this report.


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Program helps veterans reintegrate through music






MONTCLAIR, N.J. (AP) — During stressful times as a combat medic in Afghanistan, Mason Sullivan found solace in Vivaldi. New Jersey native Nairobi Cruz was comforted by country music, a genre she had never heard before joining the Army. For Jose Mercedes, it was an eclectic iPod mix that helped him cope with losing an arm during a tour of duty in Iraq.


These three young veterans all say music played a crucial role in alleviating the stresses of active duty. Now, all three are enrolled in a program that hopes to use music to ease their reintegration into civilian life.






“It’s a therapy session without the ‘sit down, lay down, and write notes,’” Mercedes, 26, of Union City, said of the music program. “It’s different — it’s an alternative that’s way better.”


The pilot program, called Voices of Valor, has veterans work as a group to synthesize their experiences into musical lyrics. Guided by musicians and a psychology mentor, they write and record a song, and then hold a CD release party. The program is currently under way at Montclair State University, where students participate through the school’s veteran affairs program.


Developed by husband and wife team Rena Fruchter and Brian Dallow, it is open to veterans of any age and background. No musical experience is required.


Both accomplished musicians, Fruchter and Dallow created the program as part of Music for All Seasons, an organization they founded which runs musical programs for audiences at places ranging from nursing homes to prisons.


Based on their experiences working with children at shelters for victims of domestic violence, Fruchter and Dallow realized that young people too traumatized to talk about what they had been through were nevertheless willing to bang on an instrument or sing — often leading to communication breakthroughs. They felt the same might be true for veterans, or other populations traditionally averse to more overt forms of ‘talk therapy.’


“We’ve had situations in which veterans have been carrying their burdens deep inside for such a long time, and they come into this group and they begin to talk about things that they’ve never talked about before,” Fruchter said. “They really open up, and it translates into some music that is really amazing and incredible and powerful.”


During a recent session of the eight-week program in Montclair, music facilitators Jennifer Lampert, a former Miss USO, and Julio Fernandez, a musician and member of the band Spyro Gyra, lead a small group of young veterans in brainstorming about their experiences.


“Tired of being angry,” ”Easier not to move on,” ”The war at home,” were phrases Lampert extracted from a discussion among the participants and she wrote each phrase in marker on large notepads fastened to a classroom blackboard. As they spoke, Fernandez strummed an acoustic guitar while Lampert sang some of the phrases the students had come up with, adjusting the beat and tempo at their suggestion. Suddenly, a musical lyric emerged: “Sometimes, I wish the past is where I stayed.”


A few weeks later, the group gathered at a sound studio in Union City, where they donned headphones and clearly relished the opportunity to record their collectively written tune, “Freedom,” in a professional studio.


“To see music heal people in that way, it’s beautiful, and the real incredible part is you don’t have to do anything but give in to the music,” Lampert said. She recounted how, time and again, the facilitators of the program had watched some participants start the class with shoulders slumped, hesitant to make eye contact, and afraid to speak up. Through the process of writing music they changed, she said, into group-focused, smiling, active participants unafraid to stand up and belt out a tune.


7/87/8_____


Follow Samantha Henry at http://www.twitter.com/SamanthaHenry


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R&B singer Brandy engaged to music executive






LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – R&B singer and actress Brandy Norwood is engaged to music executive Ryan Press, a spokeswoman for the singer said on Thursday.


This will be the first marriage for the singer, who goes by the moniker Brandy. Press is an executive with music publisher Warner/Chappell Music. A date for the wedding has not been announced publicly.






Norwood, 33, has a 10-year-old daughter with her former boyfriend, music producer Robert Smith.


Norwood has starred in numerous television and films since the 1990s and is best known as the lead character in the popular television series “Moesha” from 1996-2001 on the now-defunct channel UPN.


She also scored a hit song in 1998 with “The Boy is Mine,” a collaboration with the singer Monica, which garnered the pair a Grammy award. Brandy released her sixth studio album “Two Eleven” in October this year.


(Reporting by Eric Kelsey; Editing by Piya Sinha-Roy and David Brunnstrom)


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How Often Do We Use Guns in Self-Defense?






“The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.”


If you had to sum up the National Rifle Association’s response to the Newtown (Conn.) school massacre, and to any proposal for tougher gun-control laws, that one sentence from the NRA’s Dec. 21 press conference pretty much does the trick.






The gun owners’ lobby opposes restrictions on civilian acquisition and possession of firearms because, it contends, law-abiding people need guns to defend themselves. Millions of people also use guns for hunting and target-shooting. But at the core of the NRA’s argument is self-defense: the ultimate right to protect one’s ability to remain upright and breathing.


So how often do Americans use guns to defend themselves? If it almost never happens, then the NRA argument is based on a fallacy and deserves little respect in the fashioning of public policy. If, on the other hand, defensive gun use (DGU) is relatively common, then even a diehard gun-control advocate with any principles and common sense would admit that this fact must be given some weight.


Criminologists concur that the unusual prevalence of guns in America—some 300 million in private hands—makes our violent crime more lethal than that of other countries. (See, for example, the excellent When Brute Force Fails, by UCLA’s Mark Kleiman.) That’s the cost of allowing widespread civilian gun ownership: In this country, when someone is inclined to commit a mugging, shoot up a movie theater, or kill their spouse (or themselves), firearms are readily available.


One reason the gun debate seems so radioactive is that gun-control proponents refer almost exclusively to the cost of widespread gun ownership, while the NRA and its allies focus on guns as instruments and symbols of self-reliance. Very few, if any, participants in the conflict acknowledge that guns are both bad and good, depending on how they’re used. Robbers use them to stick up convenience stores, and convenience store owners use them to stop armed robbers.


If guns have a countervailing benefit—that lawful firearm owners frequently or even occasionally use guns to defend themselves and their loved ones—then determining how aggressively to curb private possession becomes a more complicated proposition.


As with everything else concerning guns in this country, the DGU question prompts divergent answers. At one end of the spectrum, the NRA cites research by Gary Kleck, an accomplished criminologist at Florida State University. Based on self-reporting by survey respondents, Kleck has extrapolated that DGU occurs more than 2 million times a year. Kleck doesn’t suggest that gun owners shoot potential antagonists that often. DGU covers various scenarios, including merely brandishing a weapon and scaring off an aggressor.


At the other end of the spectrum, gun skeptics prefer to cite the work of David Hemenway, an eminent public-health scholar at Harvard University. Hemenway, who analogizes gun violence to an epidemic and guns to the contagion, argues that Kleck’s research significantly overestimates the frequency of DGU.


The carping back and forth gets pretty technical, but the brief version is that Hemenway believes Kleck includes too many “false positives”: respondents who claim they’ve chased off burglars or rapists with guns but probably are boasting or, worse, categorizing unlawful aggressive conduct as legitimate DGU. Hemenway finds more reliable an annual federal government research project, called the National Crime Victimization Survey, which yields estimates in the neighborhood of 100,000 defensive gun uses per year. Making various reasonable-sounding adjustments, other social scientists have suggested that perhaps a figure somewhere between 250,000 and 370,000 might be more accurate.


What’s the upshot?


1. We don’t know exactly how frequently defensive gun use occurs.


2. A conservative estimate of the order of magnitude is tens of thousands of times a year; 100,000 is not a wild gun-nut fantasy.


3. Many gun owners (I am not one, but I know plenty) focus not on statistical probabilities, but on a worst-case scenario: They’re in trouble, and they want a fighting chance.


4. DGU does not answer any questions in this debate, but it’s a factor that deserves attention.


Businessweek.com — Top News





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Cuba has much to lose as ally Chavez fights cancer






HAVANA (AP) — Cubans who were tuned in to the nightly soap opera on a recent Saturday received a sudden burst of bad news, from the other side of the Caribbean.


State TV cut to the presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez revealed that his cancer had returned. Facing his fourth related surgery in 18 months, he grimly named Vice President Nicolas Maduro as his possible successor.






The news shocked not only Venezuelans but millions of Cubans who have come to depend on Chavez’s largesse for everything from subsidized oil to cheap loans. Venezuela supplies about half of Cuba‘s energy needs, meaning the island’s economy would be in for a huge shock and likely recession if a post-Chavez president forced the island to pay full price for oil.


Despite the drama, the news likely wasn’t a surprise to Cuba’s Communist government, and not only because Chavez has been receiving medical care on the island.


Havana learned important lessons about overdependence when the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union threw the country into a deep crisis. Trying to avoid the consequences of a similar cut, the Cuban government has been diversifying its portfolio of economic partners in recent years, looking to Asia, Europe and other Latin American nations, and is only about half as dependent on Caracas as it was on the former Soviet Union.


Cuba is also working to stimulate its economy back home by allowing more private-sector activity, giving a leg up to independent and cooperative farming, and decentralizing its sugar industry. A stronger Cuban economy would in theory have more hard currency to pay for energy and other imports.


Also getting off the ground is an experiment with independent nonfarm collectives that should be more efficient than state-run companies. And next year, another pilot program is planned for decentralized state enterprises that will enjoy near-autonomy and be allowed to control most of their income.


“This could have good results,” said a Cuban economist who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to talk to the foreign media. Cuba “is also thinking of boosting foreign investment in areas of the national economy, including in restricted areas like the sugar industry.”


One of the country’s top goals has been to make the island’s struggling economy less dependent on a single benefactor.


Under the leadership of Chavez, who regularly calls former Cuban President Fidel Castro his ideological father and has followed parts of the Communist leader’s governance playbook, Venezuela has sent billions of dollars a year to Cuba through trade and petro-aid.


Bilateral trade stood at a little over $ 8 billion last year, much of it in Cuban imports of oil and derivatives. In return, Havana primarily provides Venezuela with technical support from Cuban teachers, scientists and other professionals, plus brigades of health care workers. Analysts say those services are overvalued by outside standards, apparently costing as much as $ 200,000 per year per doctor. Experts peg the total Venezuelan subsidy to Cuba at around $ 2 billion to $ 4 billion a year.


While business with Venezuela makes up 40 percent of all Cuban trade, it’s still a far cry from the days when the Communist Eastern Bloc accounted for an estimated 80 percent.


“A (loss of) $ 2 billion to $ 4 billion would definitely pinch. But it is not the same relative weight as the sudden complete withdrawal of the Soviet subsidies in the early ’90s,” said Richard E. Feinberg, a professor of international political economy at the University of California, San Diego. “Cuba’s not going to go back to the days of bicycles. Could it throw the Cuban economy into recession? Yes.”


That kind of resilience would result largely from Cuba’s successes in courting foreign investors for joint ventures.


Last month, authorities announced a deal with a subsidiary of Brazil’s Odebrecht to manage a sugar refinery, a rare step in an industry that has long been largely off limits to foreign involvement.


China has invested in land-based oil projects, and along with Canada is a key player in Cuba’s important nickel industry. Spain has ventures in tourist hotels and tobacco, while French company Pernod Ricard helps export Cuban liquors. And since 2009, Brazil has been a partner in a massive project to modernize and expand the port at Mariel, west of the capital.


Trade with China alone was $ 1.9 billion and rising in 2010, and Raul Castro paid a visit to Chinese and Vietnamese leaders earlier this year to help cement Asian relationships.


But while Havana says it wants to boost foreign investment, obstacles remain. The approval process for investment projects can be long and cumbersome, and pilferage, disincentives to productivity and government intervention can cut into efficiencies. Foreign companies also pay a sky-high payroll tax.


Feinberg, who wrote a report on foreign investment in Cuba published this month by the U.S. think tank the Brookings Institution, said that while a number of foreign companies are successfully doing business with the island, others have run into problems, sending a chilly message to would-be investors. In particular he noted the recent cases of a government takeover of a food company run by a Chilean businessman accused of corruption, and contentious renegotiations of a contract with Dutch-British personal and home care products giant Unilever amid shifting government demands.


“The Cuban government has to decide that it wants foreign investment unambiguously. I think now there seem to be divisions among the leadership,” Feinberg said. “Some are afraid that foreign investment compromises sovereignty, creates centers of power independent of the leadership or is exploitative.”


He estimated Cuba has left on the table about $ 20 billion in missed investment over the past decade by not following practices typical of other developing nations. Instead, Cuba received $ 3.5 billion in foreign investment in that period.


Experts say a worst-case scenario for Chavez wouldn’t automatically translate into the oil spigot shutting off overnight.


If Chavez’s hand-picked successor, Vice President Maduro, were to take office, he would likely seek to continue the special relationship.


Opposition leader Henrique Capriles has said he wants to end the oil-for-services barter arrangements, but could find that easier said than done should he win. The two countries are intertwined in dozens of joint accords, and poor Venezuelans who benefit from free care by Cuban doctors would be loath to see that disappear.


“You can’t flip the switch on a relationship like this,” said Melissa Lockhart Fortner, a Cuba analyst at the Pacific Council on International Policy, a Los Angeles-based institute that focuses on global affairs. “It would be terrible politics for him. … Switching that off would really endanger his support far too much for that to be really a feasible option.”


For Cuba, Chavez’s latest health scare capped off a year of disappointments in the island’s attempt to wean itself from Venezuelan energy.


Three deep-water exploratory oil wells drilled off the west coast failed to yield a strike, and last month the only oil rig in the world capable of drilling there without violating U.S. sanctions sailed away with no return in sight.


Yet time and again Havana has shown that it’s nothing if not resilient, weathering everything from U.S.-backed invasion and assassination plots in the 1960s to the austere “Special Period” in the early 1990s, when the Soviet collapse sent Cuba’s GDP plummeting 33 percent over four years. When hurricanes damaged the country’s agriculture sector and the global financial crisis squeezed tourism four years ago, Cuba tightened its belt, slashed imports and survived.


“Some people are saying the demise of Chavez is also going to be the demise of Communism in Cuba because the regime’s going to collapse and the people are going to rise up,” Feinberg said. “That’s probably yet another delusion of the anti-Castro exile community.”


Still, many Cubans are nervously tuning into the near-daily updates about Chavez’s health, carried prominently in state media.


“I don’t know what would happen here,” said 52-year-old Havana resident Magaly Ruiz. “We might end up eating grass.”


___


Associated Press writers Andrea Rodriguez and Anne-Marie Garcia in Havana contributed to this report.


___


Peter Orsi on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Peter_Orsi


Latin America News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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